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Confidence & intervals

Why a perfect score can still fail to gate. experimental

A score is not a bare number. On the evolving epistemic-core path it is a point, a confidence interval, and an effective sample size (n_effective) — and a gate decides on the lower bound, not the point. So a lucky 3/3 does not pass. Built in the framework; not yet in the version the plugin installs — the installed path still gates on the point threshold.

No false green is built on this. A number with no sample size and no interval is not evidence — it is an anecdote with a decimal point. This guide is the intuition; the typed contract lives in the reference pages linked throughout.

A number is not evidence

Three correct answers out of three is a point of 1.0 — but three observations rule almost nothing out. The honest form of that result carries its own uncertainty: a point, its 95% interval, and the count behind it (n_effective). Read the full contract on Estimate & Interval.

The gate reads the lower bound

A Decision Policy compares the lower confidence bound (LCB) to the threshold, not the hopeful point — for a higher-is-better metric; the upper bound for lower-is-better. It reads the edge of the interval that could hurt you.

A perfect 3/3 does not gate The 95% lower bound of three-for-three is ~0.44 — so against a 0.8 threshold it fails. Not a bug: three lucky samples have not earned the claim. Gather more evidence and the interval tightens until the lower bound clears the bar. Illustrative example, not a measured result.

The escape hatch is explicit and named: a policy that sets decision_statistic: point — a point-smoke check for dev — decides on the point instead. It is a deliberate, recorded choice, never the silent default.

A fake judge can never gate

Authority is capability-typed: an uncalibrated or fake judge produces evidence, not authority, so it can never move a gate. A real one earns calibrated only through a computed, self-proving agreement study and a human approval bound to the exact rig. The full story is Judge Integrity.

The installed path is still the point threshold The version the plugin installs today gates on the point threshold (now). The interval / lower-bound rule on this page is the experimental layer being hardened in the framework — surfaced here so the rule is legible before it ships, never presented as today’s default.

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